With boom in prediction markets, some lawmakers worry about how to police themselves

## Summary
Last week, Merkley introduced legislation that would ban members of Congress, the president and vice president from buying or selling any prediction market bets — known as event contracts. "I mean, we've got [more than] 400 members of the House," he said. "You've got 100 senators. Current government ethics guidance does not require detailed financial disclosure reports on prediction markets and event contract gains for White House staff, members of Congress, congressional staff or their family members. The rules around disclosure Financial disclosure instructions for the House , Senate and the White House make no mention of "event contracts" or "predictions markets." Moreover, there is no public guidance on how to report gains from these new financial vehicles. "As of right now, there is no requirement to report event contracts, none whatsoever," Merkley said. Bush's top ethics lawyer. "Members of Congress certainly have to report their earnings from event contracts," Painter said. "But the problem is they may not have to disclose what they actually bet on ... whether it was a football game or a war." To be sure, even though updated financial disclosure rules on prediction markets would increase government transparency, event contracts on anonymous platforms like Polymarket would remain difficult to track accurately. "It could go in a very bad direction" In addition to Merkley's bill, Rep.

## Article Content
Politics
With boom in prediction markets, some lawmakers worry about how to police themselves
March 14, 2026
6:00 AM ET
Luke Garrett
Online prediction markets hosting bets on U.S. presidential election and regime change in Iran.
Luke Garrett for NPR/Luke Garrett for NPR
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Luke Garrett for NPR/Luke Garrett for NPR
In the hours leading up to the joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, bets on a potential strike were being bought and sold on prediction markets like Polymarket. One trader named "Magamyman" bet big and won $553,000.
Lawmakers on Capitol Hill took notice. Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., posted on X "it's insane this is legal" and accused members of President Trump's orbit of "profiting off war and death," though Murphy did not cite any evidence to support his claims. The White House
denied the accusation
.
These well-timed bets have raised questions about the risk of insider trading, and whether U.S. lawmakers, their staffs or family could be leveraging sensitive information to financially benefit from the war with Iran or other U.S. actions through a burgeoning market with little oversight.
Middle East conflict
Prediction market trader 'Magamyman' made $553,000 on death of Iran's supreme leader
"Nobody has said to me, 'we're making these bets,' but I'm confident that they are," said Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., in an interview.
Last week, Merkley introduced
legislation
that would ban members of Congress, the president and vice president from buying or selling any prediction market bets — known as event contracts.
"I mean, we've got [more than] 400 members of the House," he said. "You've got 100 senators. You've got lots of staff. I'm sure many of them ... are making bets."
If they are, the public may never know. Current government ethics guidance does not require detailed financial disclosure reports on prediction markets and event contract gains for White House staff, members of Congress, congressional staff or their family members. There are no rules for how government officials can use prediction markets specifically, as financial disclosure guidance hasn't kept up with the rise of these new markets.
Billions of dollars are wagered each week
on popular prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket — though there are key differences between the two. Kalshi is U.S. regulated and requires users to identify themselves. Polymarket is not fully regulated for use in the U.S., does not require identification and relies strictly on cryptocurrency. The platforms have largely catered to sports betting, but also allow users to place bets on political events like when a lawmaker might retire or drop out of a race. And that's raised fears about new ways in which politicians might be able to profit from their positions.
Venezuela and U.S. relations
A $400,000 profit on Maduro's capture raises insider trading questions on Polymarket
Unlike Kalshi, Polymarket users can place wagers on international conflicts — even though the Commodity Exchange Act bans war bets. Polymarket's exchange is largely operated internationally and doesn't allow U.S.-based bettors for most event contracts. Users often hide their identity and location with virtual private networks (VPNs) in order to access the exchange.
Anonymous users are currently betting on when
U.S. ground forces will enter Iran
and when
a U.S.-Iran ceasefire will be reached
. Back in January, an unknown trader made hundreds of thousands of dollars on Polymarket event contracts regarding
the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro
.
The rules around disclosure
Financial disclosure instructions for the
House
,
Senate
and the
White House
make no mention of "event contracts" or "predictions markets." Moreover, there is no public guidance on how to report gains from these new financial vehicles.
"As of right now, there is no requirement to report event contracts, none whatsoever," Merkley said.
That's a sharp break from the rules of the road around profits from more traditional markets. Current congressional and White House financial disclosure guidance does give detailed instructions on how members, officials, their staffs and family should report gains from stocks, cryptocurrencies, bonds, commodities futures and other non-exempt securities. By law these disclosures require lawmakers and their spouses to disclose these trades and other profitable transactions within 45 days.
Blake Chisam, a former chief counsel for the House Ethics Committee, said he's not surprised by the lack of guidance for prediction markets.
"I wouldn't call this a loophole so much as a blind spot: the rules were written for blue-chip stocks and mutual funds, not yes-or-no bets on the next speaker, and the ethics framework simply hasn't caught up yet," Chisam said.
Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., seen above during a Jan. 28, 2026 hearing on Capitol Hill, has introduced legislation that would ban members of Congress, the president and vice president from buying or selling any pre

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## Expert Analysis

### Merits
- These well-timed bets have raised questions about the risk of insider trading, and whether U.S. lawmakers, their staffs or family could be leveraging sensitive information to financially benefit from the war with Iran or other U.S. actions through a burgeoning market with little oversight.

### Areas for Consideration
- These well-timed bets have raised questions about the risk of insider trading, and whether U.S. lawmakers, their staffs or family could be leveraging sensitive information to financially benefit from the war with Iran or other U.S. actions through a burgeoning market with little oversight.
- Bush's top ethics lawyer. "Members of Congress certainly have to report their earnings from event contracts," Painter said. "But the problem is they may not have to disclose what they actually bet on ... whether it was a football game or a war." To be sure, even though updated financial disclosure rules on prediction markets would increase government transparency, event contracts on anonymous platforms like Polymarket would remain difficult to track accurately. "It could go in a very bad direction" In addition to Merkley's bill, Rep.
- To Moore, prediction markets create a moral and societal issue. "It could go in a very bad direction if some staffer of some member of Congress or something knows when that person is going to retire and then makes a profit," Moore said. "It's basic stuff.

### Implications
- Politics With boom in prediction markets, some lawmakers worry about how to police themselves March 14, 2026 6:00 AM ET Luke Garrett Online prediction markets hosting bets on U.S. presidential election and regime change in Iran.
- These well-timed bets have raised questions about the risk of insider trading, and whether U.S. lawmakers, their staffs or family could be leveraging sensitive information to financially benefit from the war with Iran or other U.S. actions through a burgeoning market with little oversight.
- I'm sure many of them ... are making bets." If they are, the public may never know.
- The platforms have largely catered to sports betting, but also allow users to place bets on political events like when a lawmaker might retire or drop out of a race.

### Expert Commentary
This article covers prediction, markets, event topics. Notable strengths include discussion of prediction. Areas of concern are also raised. Readability: Flesch-Kincaid grade 0.0. Word count: 1557.