What the US military could do if Iran fails to meet Trump's ultimatum

## Summary
What the US military could do if Iran fails to meet Trump's ultimatum 3 hours ago Share Save Add as preferred on Google Daniel Bush Washington correspondent Watch: Americans react to Trump's 'a whole civilisation will die tonight' warning The clock is ticking on President Donald Trump's threat to wipe out much of Iran's civilian infrastructure if the country doesn't strike a deal by Tuesday evening in the US. And would it have the desired strategic effect?" said a former senior US defence official who asked not to be named. "Trump is almost struggling to come up with a new level or threat that he can say with words that will move the strategic needle more in favour of the US here." Watch: Iranians form human chains at potential US targets after Trump's threats to destroy civilian infrastructure Live - latest updates and analysis ahead of Trump deadline Tracking recent US-Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure A large-scale attack on Iran's power sector is more feasible than taking out every single bridge in the country, experts said. Striking power plants in the region could deal the Iranian regime a significant blow, said Miad Maleki, a former senior US treasury official who led sanctions against Iran. "You do anything to those three provinces, you cut the regime's access to oil revenue [and] its access to the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz," said Maleki, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy. For Iran's leadership, Campbell said, the war "is an existential fight not just for the country but for the regime." 'We're sinking deeper': Iranians brace for infrastructure strikes as Trump deadline nears Oil price fluctuates ahead of Trump's Iran deal deadline Trump's deadline looms but Asian nations already have deals with Iran Donald Trump Nuclear weapons Iran war

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What the US military could do if Iran fails to meet Trump's ultimatum
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Daniel Bush
Washington correspondent
Watch: Americans react to Trump's 'a whole civilisation will die tonight' warning
The clock is ticking on President Donald Trump's threat to wipe out much of Iran's civilian infrastructure if the country doesn't strike a deal by Tuesday evening in the US.
But Trump has backed himself into a corner with threats that the US military can't feasibly carry out in one fell swoop, military experts and analysts told the BBC. And they warn that a new round of attacks, no matter how large, is unlikely to force the Iranian regime to quickly agree to a ceasefire.
Trump vowed on Monday to destroy "every bridge" and power station in Iran in just four hours if a deal isn't reached by 20:00 EST (00:00 GMT Wednesday). He escalated even further on Tuesday morning, warning that "a whole civilization will die" if Iran doesn't agree to a deal by his deadline.
Taken together, the warnings amounted to an unprecedented threat from a US president. Targeting civilian infrastructure could constitute a war crime, according to experts on international law. But Trump dismissed such concerns at a press conference on Monday.
Aside from the impact on Iranian civilians, former US defence officials and other analysts said the US simply can't destroy every bridge in a country the size of Iran in just a few hours, as Trump threatened to do.
Iran is approximately one-third the size of the continental US. The US knows the exact location of Iran's main nuclear facilities and other key infrastructure, but likely cannot identify thousands of other targets across the country and destroy them in such a short time span, experts said.
"To meet this threat literally would be an absolute herculean task. And would it have the desired strategic effect?" said a former senior US defence official who asked not to be named. "Trump is almost struggling to come up with a new level or threat that he can say with words that will move the strategic needle more in favour of the US here."
Watch: Iranians form human chains at potential US targets after Trump's threats to destroy civilian infrastructure
Live - latest updates and analysis ahead of Trump deadline
Tracking recent US-Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure
A large-scale attack on Iran's power sector is more feasible than taking out every single bridge in the country, experts said.
A majority of Iran's power plants and refineries are located in three coastal provinces - Bushehr, Khuzestan and Hormozgan - on the Persian Gulf. Striking power plants in the region could deal the Iranian regime a significant blow, said Miad Maleki, a former senior US treasury official who led sanctions against Iran.
"You do anything to those three provinces, you cut the regime's access to oil revenue [and] its access to the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz," said Maleki, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy.
Vice-President JD Vance said that the US carried out airstrikes on military targets on Kharg Island, a key island in the Persian Gulf that handles roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports.
Speaking to reporters in Budapest on Tuesday, Vance said those strikes did not represent a change in Trump's strategy. He said negotiations with Iran would continue until Trump's deadline but warned that the US could inflict "much greater pain" on the country's economy.
"So they've got to know, we've got tools in our toolkit that we so far haven't decided to use. The president of the United States can decide to use them, and he will decide to use them, if the Iranians don't change their course of conduct."
The White House dismissed reports that Vance's comments contained any suggestion of a US nuclear strike against the Islamic republic.
Some civilian infrastructure has already been targeted. Iran's state media said on Tuesday that US-Israeli airstrikes targeted a bridge in the city of Qom. Last week Trump said the US bombed Iran's largest bridge.
ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH/EPA/Shutterstock
Smoke rises following a US-Israeli airstrike in Tehran, Iran, on Tuesday. A joint Israeli and US military operation continues to target multiple locations across Iran
It's unclear if the new wave of attacks Trump has threatened would be enough to force Tehran to come to the negotiating table. US and Iranian officials reportedly spoke directly on Tuesday after weeks of indirect talks failed to move the sides closer to a deal. Still, the countries remain far apart on major issues including the future of Iran's oil sector, nuclear programme and control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump said on Monday that his special envoy Steve Witkoff, son-in-law Jared Kushner and Vance were leading the talks. But a US official who spoke on the condition of anonymity said Witkoff and Kushner are leading the day-to-day efforts and Vance would only be brought in if a deal is imminent.
"The Vice-President may be

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## Expert Analysis

### Merits
- Striking power plants in the region could deal the Iranian regime a significant blow, said Miad Maleki, a former senior US treasury official who led sanctions against Iran. "You do anything to those three provinces, you cut the regime's access to oil revenue [and] its access to the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz," said Maleki, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy.
- But a US official who spoke on the condition of anonymity said Witkoff and Kushner are leading the day-to-day efforts and Vance would only be brought in if a deal is imminent. "The Vice-President may be tagged in more directly if there's sufficient progress made by Witkoff and Jared," the US official said.
- Trump hasn't made a strong case that the US is going to get what it wants by escalating the war, said Jason Campbell, a former Department of Defense official under former President Joe Biden and Trump.

### Areas for Consideration
- What the US military could do if Iran fails to meet Trump's ultimatum 3 hours ago Share Save Add as preferred on Google Daniel Bush Washington correspondent Watch: Americans react to Trump's 'a whole civilisation will die tonight' warning The clock is ticking on President Donald Trump's threat to wipe out much of Iran's civilian infrastructure if the country doesn't strike a deal by Tuesday evening in the US.
- Taken together, the warnings amounted to an unprecedented threat from a US president.
- The US knows the exact location of Iran's main nuclear facilities and other key infrastructure, but likely cannot identify thousands of other targets across the country and destroy them in such a short time span, experts said. "To meet this threat literally would be an absolute herculean task.

### Implications
- What the US military could do if Iran fails to meet Trump's ultimatum 3 hours ago Share Save Add as preferred on Google Daniel Bush Washington correspondent Watch: Americans react to Trump's 'a whole civilisation will die tonight' warning The clock is ticking on President Donald Trump's threat to wipe out much of Iran's civilian infrastructure if the country doesn't strike a deal by Tuesday evening in the US.
- He escalated even further on Tuesday morning, warning that "a whole civilization will die" if Iran doesn't agree to a deal by his deadline.
- Targeting civilian infrastructure could constitute a war crime, according to experts on international law.
- Aside from the impact on Iranian civilians, former US defence officials and other analysts said the US simply can't destroy every bridge in a country the size of Iran in just a few hours, as Trump threatened to do.

### Expert Commentary
This article covers iran, trump, deal topics. Notable strengths include discussion of iran. Areas of concern are also raised. Readability: Flesch-Kincaid grade 0.0. Word count: 1104.