Trump’s war in Iran threatens to cause an economic shock – but which countries will be worst hit? | The Independent

## Summary
All rights reserved ) India accounts for 14.7 per cent of imports reliant on the Strait of Hormuz, according to Dr Shokri, who said cooking gas was particularly vulnerable . “More than 60 per cent of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) demand is met through imports, making cooking fuel particularly vulnerable,” he says. “If disruptions persist, households may face reduced access to energy, rising costs, and increased reliance on lower-quality fuels such as biomass or kerosene. “This would not only raise living costs but also create health risks, especially for lower-income populations , while amplifying pressure on already strained public services.” Electric induction cooktops have flown off the shelves in India as households rush to buy the appliance amid the cooking gas shortage. Sri Lanka open image in gallery Sri Lanka announced a shorter work week to conserve its scarce fuel reserves ( AFP via Getty Images ) Sri Lankan authorities said on Tuesday they have around six weeks of fuel reserves left , as the country depends heavily on gas and oil imports. Pakistan open image in gallery Vendors in Balochistan fill jerrycans with smuggled Iranian petrol ( AFP via Getty Images ) Pakistan takes roughly 85 per cent of its energy from the Strait of Hormuz, according to Dr Shokri. Bangladesh open image in gallery ( AP ) Bangladesh is about 95 per cent dependent on oil imports with around 20 days of reserves, according to Dr Shokri.

## Article Content
D
onald Trump has claimed that the
economic impact of his war in Iran
is “a very small price to pay” for ousting the country’s regime and
stopping its nuclear programme.
But his assessment might not be shared by the dozens of countries grappling with a surge in energy prices due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In the past fortnight, Sri Lanka has introduced a four-day working week, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) has suggested people around the world should work from home to conserve energy due to the squeeze on fuel created
by the conflict.
A trickle of oil is leaving the
Middle East
while the
Strait of Hormuz remains under Iranian control
, with a reduced number of boats transiting through since the end of February. The pressure was compounded after
Tehran
targeted numerous oil production facilities
in Gulf countries in retaliation for Israel’s strikes on its
vital South Pars gas field.
open image in gallery
Brent Crude Oil prices skyrocketed from the start of March
(
Trading Economics
)
With no end to the Iran war in sight, experts are already warning of a new cost-of-living crisis. In the UK, bills could
increase by as much as £300
from the summer – taking the country back to the inflationary aftershock seen in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine.
“Really, what traders are looking for is some sort of indication of an end to the conflict, and we are not seeing that,” explains Dr Adi Imsirovic, a lecturer in energy systems at the University of Oxford. “I don't think the US realised that the actual price of oil going to the refineries, and what will go to the end users, is actually a lot more expensive than what the markets are indicating.”
The cost of Brent Crude, considered to be the global oil benchmark, has soared more than 60 per cent since the war started. When the market closed on the evening of 27 February, it was priced around $71. On Wednesday, prices briefly peaked at $119 a barrel, the highest figure since the first few months of the war in Ukraine.
open image in gallery
People queue up to refuel their vehicles at a gas station in Chennai
(
AFP via Getty Images
)
Why Asia is at risk of an economic shock
Asia is particularly dependent on the
Strait of Hormuz. It
accounts for roughly 80–84 per cent of global crude oil flows and over 80 per cent of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) transit through the strait, according to Dr Umud Shokri, energy strategist and senior visiting fellow at George Mason University.
But not all nations are expected to struggle, he says.
“The extent to which countries are going to be impacted depends on two main things: the proportion of oil they buy from the Middle East and what other reserves they have.”
China is the largest importer, with virtually all the Iranian oil prior to the conflict going there. Even now, tankers holding the sanctioned resource are exiting the strait for China.
“Over time, China worked very hard on their supply, so they’re one of the biggest buyers of South American oil. They’re a huge buyer of Russian oil. They buy a lot of West African oil,” says Dr Imsirovic. “With their financial muscle, they managed to also build huge stockpiles of reserves as well.”
Countries like Japan and South Korea are also “hugely exposed”, he says, but due to their “fairly large reserves” they will not face the same shock that some countries in
South Asia
will receive.
Here are the countries expected to fare the worst from the Middle East oil crisis:
India
open image in gallery
Cooking gas is particularly vulnerable in India
(
Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved
)
India accounts for 14.7 per cent of imports reliant on the Strait of Hormuz, according to Dr Shokri, who said
cooking gas was particularly vulnerable
.
“More than 60 per cent of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) demand is met through imports, making cooking fuel particularly vulnerable,” he says. “If disruptions persist, households may face reduced access to energy, rising costs, and increased reliance on lower-quality fuels such as biomass or kerosene.
“This would not only raise living costs but also
create health risks, especially for lower-income populations
, while amplifying pressure on already strained public services.”
Electric induction cooktops have
flown off the shelves in India
as households rush to buy the appliance amid the cooking gas shortage.
Already, several models have sold out on e-commerce and quick-commerce platforms such as Amazon, Flipkart, Blinkit, Instamart, and Zepto, while some offline chains say ​fresh supplies are still days away.
Sri Lanka
open image in gallery
Sri Lanka announced a shorter work week to conserve its scarce fuel reserves
(
AFP via Getty Images
)
Sri Lankan authorities said on Tuesday they have
around six weeks of fuel reserves left
, as the country depends heavily on gas and oil imports. Authorities introduced a four-day working week and strict fuel rationing to preserve dwindling supplies.
Prabath Chandrakeerthi, commissioner of

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## Expert Analysis

### Merits
N/A

### Areas for Consideration
- On Wednesday, prices briefly peaked at $119 a barrel, the highest figure since the first few months of the war in Ukraine. open image in gallery People queue up to refuel their vehicles at a gas station in Chennai ( AFP via Getty Images ) Why Asia is at risk of an economic shock Asia is particularly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz.
- The UK depends on imported LNG, which creates a far bigger problem than oil, according to Dr Imsirovic.
- While most of the UK’s gas comes from Norway and the United States, some of it comes from Qatar. “The problem is, in these international markets, prices are going up,” he says.

### Implications
- D onald Trump has claimed that the economic impact of his war in Iran is “a very small price to pay” for ousting the country’s regime and stopping its nuclear programme.
- But his assessment might not be shared by the dozens of countries grappling with a surge in energy prices due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
- In the past fortnight, Sri Lanka has introduced a four-day working week, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) has suggested people around the world should work from home to conserve energy due to the squeeze on fuel created by the conflict.
- In the UK, bills could increase by as much as £300 from the summer – taking the country back to the inflationary aftershock seen in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine. “Really, what traders are looking for is some sort of indication of an end to the conflict, and we are not seeing that,” explains Dr Adi Imsirovic, a lecturer in energy systems at the University of Oxford. “I don't think the US realised that the actual price of oil going to the refineries, and what will go to the end users, is actually a lot more expensive than what the markets are indicating.” The cost of Brent Crude, considered to be the global oil benchmark, has soared more than 60 per cent since the war started.

### Expert Commentary
This article covers oil, fuel, gas topics. Areas of concern are also raised. Readability: Flesch-Kincaid grade 0.0. Word count: 1371.