The Iran war is causing a global energy crisis - can China withstand it?

## Summary
The Iran war is causing a global energy crisis - can China withstand it? 44 minutes ago Share Save Osmond Chia Business reporter Share Save Getty Images China has long braced for a Gulf oil supply shock - but the Iran war's disruption of a key global shipping route is now putting its resilience to the test. Gulf countries are a major source of the oil China ships in, with barrels from Saudi Arabia and Iran accounting for more than 10% of its imports each, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Prepared for rainy days Beijing has over the years taken advantage of lower crude prices and the abundance of supply from Gulf states to build one of the world's biggest oil reserves, says Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy. According to trade analytics group Kpler, more than 46 million barrels of Iranian crude oil - several days' worth of energy - currently sit in tankers along the South China Sea.

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The Iran war is causing a global energy crisis - can China withstand it?
44 minutes ago
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Osmond Chia
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China has long braced for a Gulf oil supply shock - but the Iran war's disruption of a key global shipping route is now putting its resilience to the test.
Energy shipments from the Middle East have been at a standstill following Iran's threats to attack vessels that pass through a critical trade waterway as retaliation against US-Israeli strikes.
The blockade has led to a global oil shortage which has rocked Gulf-reliant Asian countries hard - with the Philippines mandating four-day work weeks to save fuel, and Indonesia seeking ways to avoid burning through reserves that will last just weeks.
China, the world's largest buyer of oil, is also feeling the strain.
But the country sits in a better position than its neighbours, after years of statecraft that have prepared it for a global energy crisis.
A test of China's energy network
The world economy has been thrown into turbulence since the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran in late February.
Since then, oil prices have at points soared to close to $120 (£90) a barrel - pushed up by strikes on shipping and energy infrastructure and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's busiest oil shipping channel.
About a fifth of the world's oil passes through the strait - around 20 million barrels each day, according to estimates from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The shortage has left countries scrambling for alternative crude suppliers outside of the Gulf, while others are tapping into their own oil reserves.
As the world's second-largest consumer of oil after the US, China uses an estimated 15 to 16 million barrels of oil daily, various market analysts told the BBC.
The oil is mainly used for China's massive transportation network of cars, trucks and jets. And much of it comes from abroad.
Gulf countries are a major source of the oil China ships in,
with barrels from Saudi Arabia and Iran accounting for more than 10% of its imports each, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
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Most of China's electricity is powered by coal
Most of the country's imported crude oil, which comes from Iran and the Middle East through the South China Sea, is used as fuel to support factories and transportation, mainly in the southern half of China.
The country's north, however, is mainly powered by oil produced domestically in major oilfields, along with pipeline imports from Russia - and these are not disrupted by the war in the Middle East.
While many Asian countries have relied heavily on oil from Gulf nations, Russian oil accounts for nearly a fifth of China's energy imports. That makes Moscow by far Beijing's biggest oil supplier, despite sanctions from the US and Europe.
Coal is also the dominant source of power for most of China's electricity, and is available in abundance locally.
China is the world's largest coal producer, accounting for more than half of global production.
Oil and gas meanwhile account for just over a quarter of China's total energy mix, according to estimates published in state media - making the country less dependent on the resource than Europe and the US.
Prepared for rainy days
Beijing has over the years taken advantage of lower crude prices and the abundance of supply from Gulf states to build one of the world's biggest oil reserves, says Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy.
In January and February of this year alone, Beijing bought 16% more crude compared to the same time period a year earlier, according to its customs administration.
Iran, whose oil is sanctioned by the US, has been a key supplier of cheap crude for China, with reports suggesting that Beijing buys more than 80% of Iran's oil exports.
Vessel-tracking data since the Iran war started indicates that some of this oil is still arriving in China - though analysts disagree on the exact size of China's oil stockpile.
According to trade analytics group Kpler, more than 46 million barrels of Iranian crude oil - several days' worth of energy - currently sit in tankers along the South China Sea.
Getty Images
Estimates suggest China has around three months' worth of oil reserves
Hansen says that estimates show China has built up reserves of around 900 million barrels - just under three months' worth of imports. Figures from Columbia University, cited by Chinese state media, said China had petrol reserves of some 1.4 billion barrels.
It is also unclear how much daily imported energy China is using right away, and how much is being funnelled into its oil reserves, says Hansen. The sheer volume, he adds, still serves as a "substantial buffer" for times of disruption.
Despite its reserves, Beijing has shown signs of caution to manage its supplies in the near future.
Authorities in China reportedly ordered its oil refineries to stop exporting fuel for the time b

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## Expert Analysis

### Merits
- Since then, oil prices have at points soared to close to $120 (£90) a barrel - pushed up by strikes on shipping and energy infrastructure and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's busiest oil shipping channel.
- Prepared for rainy days Beijing has over the years taken advantage of lower crude prices and the abundance of supply from Gulf states to build one of the world's biggest oil reserves, says Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy.

### Areas for Consideration
- It is also unclear how much daily imported energy China is using right away, and how much is being funnelled into its oil reserves, says Hansen.

### Implications
- The blockade has led to a global oil shortage which has rocked Gulf-reliant Asian countries hard - with the Philippines mandating four-day work weeks to save fuel, and Indonesia seeking ways to avoid burning through reserves that will last just weeks.
- Despite its reserves, Beijing has shown signs of caution to manage its supplies in the near future.
- As a result of its renewable push, crude oil only made up around a fifth of China's total energy consumption in 2024.
- And this demand for oil is unlikely to rise again in the future, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) .

### Expert Commentary
This article covers china, oil, energy topics. Notable strengths include discussion of china. Areas of concern are also raised. Readability: Flesch-Kincaid grade 0.0. Word count: 1262.