Iran expert says Trump's 'war of choice' has morphed into a 'war of necessity'

## Summary
NPR Middle East LISTEN & FOLLOW NPR App Apple Podcasts Spotify Amazon Music iHeart Radio YouTube Music RSS link Middle East Iran expert says Trump's 'war of choice' has morphed into a 'war of necessity' March 17, 2026 6:27 PM ET Heard on Fresh Air Terry Gross FA: Karim Sadjadpour (Iran, news) Listen · 43:29 43:29 Toggle more options Download Embed Embed < iframe src="https://www.npr.org/player/embed/nx-s1-5750397/nx-s1-9691593" width="100%" height="290" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="NPR embedded audio player"> A man stands in a damaged residence in Tehran on March 14. Middle East conflict What to know about Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new supreme leader Sadjadpour says the war with Iran began as what he calls a "war of choice" — meaning there was no imminent threat that Iran was about to acquire nuclear weapons or launch missile strikes on the U.S. or its partners. Middle East conflict These are the casualties and cost of the war in Iran 2 weeks into the conflict In addition, it's unclear how much power Iran's newly appointed supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei , actually holds. And Vladimir Putin actually has strong relations with the leadership inside Arabia … so I'm not concerned that this will deteriorate into a World War III, but … this has just set a very dangerous precedent and I don't think that the world or especially the Middle East is going to feel like a stable place for the foreseeable future.

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Middle East
Iran expert says Trump's 'war of choice' has morphed into a 'war of necessity'
March 17, 2026
6:27 PM ET
Heard on
Fresh Air
Terry Gross
FA: Karim Sadjadpour (Iran, news)
Listen
·
43:29
43:29
Toggle more options
Download
Embed
Embed
<
iframe src="https://www.npr.org/player/embed/nx-s1-5750397/nx-s1-9691593" width="100%" height="290" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="NPR embedded audio player">
A man stands in a damaged residence in Tehran on March 14.
Majid Saeedi/Getty Images Europe
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Majid Saeedi/Getty Images Europe
Three weeks into the
U.S. and Israel's war with Iran
, it remains unclear how or when the conflict might end. When asked by a reporter on Sunday if he was ready to declare victory,
President Trump
responded
, "no, I don't want to do that. There's no reason to."
Karim Sadjadpour
, a senior fellow at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
, says the president seems to have underestimated Iran's response to the war. Sadjadpour notes that Iran telegraphed from the beginning that it planned to regionalize the conflict. But, he says, "President Trump said that that took him by surprise when Iran started
to attack
the Persian Gulf countries or close down the Strait of Hormuz."
"I don't think President Trump,
in his own words frankly
, understood what he was getting into," he adds.
Middle East conflict
What to know about Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new supreme leader
Sadjadpour says the war with Iran began as what he calls a "war of choice" — meaning there was no imminent threat that Iran was about to acquire nuclear weapons or launch missile strikes on the U.S. or its partners. But the calculus has since changed. The Iranian government has
effectively closed
the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which approximately 20% of the world's crude oil and natural gas typically passes.
Middle East conflict
These are the casualties and cost of the war in Iran 2 weeks into the conflict
In addition, it's unclear how much power Iran's newly appointed supreme leader,
Mojtaba Khamenei
, actually holds. Earlier today, Israel announced that it had
killed Ali Larijani
, the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Larijani was expected to be a close adviser to Khamenei.
"At a time when the regime's survival is at stake, Larijani's decades of domestic and foreign policy experience make his loss a significant blow," Sadjadpour reflects. "For a revolutionary regime whose political ideology is premised on martyrdom, the central question is whether these assassinations will ultimately extinguish the ideology or help revive it."
Sadjadpour likens the inner functioning of the Iranian regime to a black box: "It's inaccessible to us," he says. "What began as a war choice, in my view, has actually morphed into a war of necessity. I don't think that President Trump is going to simply be able to end the war and claim victory."
Interview highlights
On the American government's priorities in this conflict
We're in a predicament. And I think that there really are four main priorities when it comes to our potential negotiations with Iran. One is obviously nuclear, and that highly enriched uranium, which is ostensibly under rubble now — after
the bombings of last June
— that needs to be accounted for. ... Second point now ... we need a deal which also addresses their use of missiles and drones. A third issue are their proxies — the support for groups like
Hezbollah in Lebanon
, the
Houthis in Yemen
, the
Iraqi Shiite militias
. Now, these proxies have been degraded, but they still do pose a real threat to regional stability.
Throughline
Iran Protests Explained
And then the fourth issue is the reason why we're even in this situation, which is Iran's
brutality
toward its own population. If you remember, last January, Trump ... warned the Iranian government that if they kill protesters, the United States would intervene. And that was his red-line he issued, ... and Iran tore up that red line. And that's what actually motivated him to start this military buildup in the Persian Gulf.
What we've seen is that the president has kind of been all over the place when he's asked what his goal is. Some days he says it's just to get a nuclear deal. Some days, he says he wants a Venezuela deal. Some days it wants to implode the regime. And that lack of clarity, in my view, has been deeply detrimental because if you don't know what it is that you're trying to achieve, then you're putting both the U.S. military and our partners in very difficult positions.
On the likelihood of the war in Iran expanding to include nuclear weapons and additional superpowers
Fortunately, I don't think that is a high likelihood, and I'll tell you why. The countries that Iran has been attacking most over the last few weeks are, as I said, these Persian Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Em

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## Expert Analysis

### Merits
- Larijani was expected to be a close adviser to Khamenei. "At a time when the regime's survival is at stake, Larijani's decades of domestic and foreign policy experience make his loss a significant blow," Sadjadpour reflects. "For a revolutionary regime whose political ideology is premised on martyrdom, the central question is whether these assassinations will ultimately extinguish the ideology or help revive it." Sadjadpour likens the inner functioning of the Iranian regime to a black box: "It's inaccessible to us," he says. "What began as a war choice, in my view, has actually morphed into a war of necessity.
- The countries that Iran has been attacking most over the last few weeks are, as I said, these Persian Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, in particular. … When you look at those countries, they actually have probably more robust relations with China and Russia than Iran does, and so it's not the case that Iran is this country with very strong allies who have its back and those Gulf countries are only allied with America and Israel.
- And Vladimir Putin actually has strong relations with the leadership inside Arabia … so I'm not concerned that this will deteriorate into a World War III, but … this has just set a very dangerous precedent and I don't think that the world or especially the Middle East is going to feel like a stable place for the foreseeable future.

### Areas for Consideration
- Majid Saeedi/Getty Images Europe hide caption toggle caption Majid Saeedi/Getty Images Europe Three weeks into the U.S. and Israel's war with Iran , it remains unclear how or when the conflict might end.
- Middle East conflict What to know about Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new supreme leader Sadjadpour says the war with Iran began as what he calls a "war of choice" — meaning there was no imminent threat that Iran was about to acquire nuclear weapons or launch missile strikes on the U.S. or its partners.
- Middle East conflict These are the casualties and cost of the war in Iran 2 weeks into the conflict In addition, it's unclear how much power Iran's newly appointed supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei , actually holds.

### Implications
- Majid Saeedi/Getty Images Europe hide caption toggle caption Majid Saeedi/Getty Images Europe Three weeks into the U.S. and Israel's war with Iran , it remains unclear how or when the conflict might end.
- Larijani was expected to be a close adviser to Khamenei. "At a time when the regime's survival is at stake, Larijani's decades of domestic and foreign policy experience make his loss a significant blow," Sadjadpour reflects. "For a revolutionary regime whose political ideology is premised on martyrdom, the central question is whether these assassinations will ultimately extinguish the ideology or help revive it." Sadjadpour likens the inner functioning of the Iranian regime to a black box: "It's inaccessible to us," he says. "What began as a war choice, in my view, has actually morphed into a war of necessity.
- And Vladimir Putin actually has strong relations with the leadership inside Arabia … so I'm not concerned that this will deteriorate into a World War III, but … this has just set a very dangerous precedent and I don't think that the world or especially the Middle East is going to feel like a stable place for the foreseeable future.
- On why he sees Iran as a tragedy I think there's a bottom line which I feel — I know most people in the U.S. and Europeans governments feel and tens of millions of Iranians feel — which is this is a country which isn't where it should be.

### Expert Commentary
This article covers iran, war, conflict topics. Notable strengths include discussion of iran. Areas of concern are also raised. Readability: Flesch-Kincaid grade 0.0. Word count: 1496.