‘India is going to face a food crisis’: Farmers panic over fertiliser shortages amid Iran war

## Summary
Photograph: Narinder Nanu/AFP/Getty ‘India is going to face a food crisis’: Farmers panic over fertiliser shortages amid Iran war Ripple effects of oil and fertiliser shortage felt by farmers in India and Sri Lanka despite governments saying there is enough stock to go round Gurvinder Singh never thought the war in Iran would touch his quiet corner of Punjab. In countries such as India, the ripple effects of a gas and fertiliser shortage could be felt for months to come, affecting what crops farmers are able to plant and how much they yield, which could ultimately translate into stockpiles of essential produce such as rice falling short. Many small-scale farmers in India already operate with heavy losses and are crushed by debt, despite substantial state subsidies for crops, in a system that agricultural experts have long described as broken and exploitative. “Because of the panic, farmers around me have started hoarding fertilisers, despite their limited shelf life,” said Tejveer Singh, whose farm is in Ambala in Punjab. “Any shortage will affect our productivity. It was less than five years ago that the country’s farmers faced a similar situation, amid an economic crisis that left Sri Lanka unable to buy imported fertiliser, and resulted in devastating profit losses and shortages of essential crops.

## Article Content
Farmers plant rice saplings in a field on the outskirts of Amritsar, Punjab, India.
Photograph: Narinder Nanu/AFP/Getty
View image in fullscreen
Farmers plant rice saplings in a field on the outskirts of Amritsar, Punjab, India.
Photograph: Narinder Nanu/AFP/Getty
‘India is going to face a food crisis’: Farmers panic over fertiliser shortages amid Iran war
Ripple effects of oil and fertiliser shortage felt by farmers in India
and Sri Lanka despite governments saying there is enough stock to go round
Gurvinder Singh never thought the war in Iran would touch his quiet corner of Punjab.
Yet looking out over his smallholding, where he alternates between wheat and rice crops in the state known as India’s breadbasket, the 52-year-old farmer can barely think of anything else. His anxiety over a conflict playing out thousands of miles away is crippling as he fears what will come of this season’s rice crop.
“We are already struggling with profits,” Singh said. “If we don’t get fertilisers, there will be less yield. That will affect my entire family and the entire region, because we are completely dependent on agriculture.
“We are praying this war stops because it will not spare us either,” he added.
Iran’s decision to blockade one of the world’s critical shipping routes, the strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for the US and Israel’s decision to launch strikes on the country over a month ago, has sent the world into a dizzying tailspin over the impact on oil and gas supplies from the Gulf states, which are now facing a global shortage.
Graphic showing how much of India’s natural gas and fertiliser imports came from the Gulf in 2024
Yet analysts and global bodies warn that this impact will soon extend far beyond exorbitant prices for oil barrels and could prove devastating for global food security. There are rising fears of food shortages and shrinking stockpiles, particularly in developing countries, as agriculture is incapacitated. The World Food Programme has estimated that an extra 45 million people could be pushed into
acute food insecurity
if the conflict does not end by June.
Experts say South Asian countries such as India and Sri Lanka are particularly vulnerable, due to their heavy reliance on imported fertilisers and imported gas and fuel for farming. India is the world’s second-largest fertiliser consumer after China, using more than
60m
tonnes annually, and most of its exports – including both finished products and raw materials – usually come from Gulf countries, shipped through the strait of Hormuz.
In countries such as India, the ripple effects of a gas and fertiliser shortage could be felt for months to come, affecting what crops farmers are able to plant and how much they yield, which could ultimately translate into stockpiles of essential produce such as rice falling short.
The ability for farmers to water, harvest, process, store and transport crops will also be drastically hit by oil and diesel shortages and surging electricity prices, triggering further worries over shortages.
View image in fullscreen
Farmers block a road in the outskirts of Amritsar, India, to demand a minimum support price for crops.
Photograph: Narinder Nanu/AFP/Getty
India spent more than 1.8tn rupees ($22bn) on fertiliser subsidies in 2023-24, underscoring how critical is it to India’s farmers and how sensitive the agriculture sector is to global price shocks. Devinder Sharma, an agricultural economist, said early signals pointed to tightening supplies and rising costs due to the war that were already being passed on to farmers. “Indian agriculture remains heavily dependent on chemical fertilisers. Any disruption quickly creates anxiety,” he said.
The conflict has already begun to strain supply chains. Farmers say they are particularly concerned about urea, the nitrogen-based fertiliser that is central to India’s farming. It is widely used as a primary nutrient and its annual consumption is about 35m to 40m tonnes. While much of it is produced domestically, production relies on imported natural gas, which is already in tight supply in the country. Gas supplies to these factories have been cut by 30%.
In key grain-producing states such as Punjab and Haryana, farmers say the immediate impact is not yet visible but there is panic. Procurement for the
kharif
season typically begins in May, ahead of sowing of crops such as rice and cotton in June and July, leaving a narrow window before fertiliser shortages could start to affect the harvest yield.
The
kharif
season in India usually produces about 100m tonnes of rice. Farmers would usually buy fertiliser in the next 15 to 20 days, but many are stocking up in advance. “In my 35 years in this business, I have not seen such panic,” said Prakash Limbuyya Swami, a fertiliser retailer in Hubballi, Karnataka.
Officials are insistent that fertiliser plants are operating normally and that buffer stocks are higher than last year, despite earlier reports suggesting that several plants are facin

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## Expert Analysis

### Merits
N/A

### Areas for Consideration
- There are no stocks,” he said. “If this yala season is affected, there is a serious food security issue.
- The disruption of food security poses a threat to national security.” In Polonnaruwa, farmer Ranjit Hulugalle said fertiliser stocks in his region were already running low and had almost doubled in price.

### Implications
- His anxiety over a conflict playing out thousands of miles away is crippling as he fears what will come of this season’s rice crop. “We are already struggling with profits,” Singh said. “If we don’t get fertilisers, there will be less yield.
- That will affect my entire family and the entire region, because we are completely dependent on agriculture. “We are praying this war stops because it will not spare us either,” he added.
- Iran’s decision to blockade one of the world’s critical shipping routes, the strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for the US and Israel’s decision to launch strikes on the country over a month ago, has sent the world into a dizzying tailspin over the impact on oil and gas supplies from the Gulf states, which are now facing a global shortage.
- Graphic showing how much of India’s natural gas and fertiliser imports came from the Gulf in 2024 Yet analysts and global bodies warn that this impact will soon extend far beyond exorbitant prices for oil barrels and could prove devastating for global food security.

### Expert Commentary
This article covers farmers, india, fertiliser topics. Areas of concern are also raised. Readability: Flesch-Kincaid grade 0.0. Word count: 1318.