When Do LLM Preferences Predict Downstream Behavior?

arXiv:2602.18971v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Preference-driven behavior in LLMs may be a necessary precondition for AI misalignment such as sandbagging: models cannot strategically pursue misaligned goals unless their behavior is influenced by their preferences. Yet prior work has typically prompted models explicitly to act in specific ways, leaving unclear whether observed behaviors reflect instruction-following capabilities vs underlying model preferences. Here we test whether this precondition for misalignment is present. Using entity preferences as a behavioral probe, we measure whether stated preferences predict downstream behavior in five frontier LLMs across three domains: donation advice, refusal behavior, and task performance. Conceptually replicating prior work, we first confirm that all five models show highly consistent preferences across two independent measurement methods. We then test behavioral consequences in a simulated user environment. We find that all five models give preference-aligned donation advice. All five models also show preference-correlated refusal patterns when asked to recommend donations, refusing more often for less-preferred entities. All preference-related behaviors that we observe here emerge without instructions to act on preferences. Results for task performance are mixed: on a question-answering benchmark (BoolQ), two models show small but significant accuracy differences favoring preferred entities; one model shows the opposite pattern; and two models show no significant relationship. On complex agentic tasks, we find no evidence of preference-driven performance differences. While LLMs have consistent preferences that reliably predict advice-giving behavior, these preferences do not consistently translate into downstream task performance.