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Causality by Abstraction: Symbolic Rule Learning in Multivariate Timeseries with Large Language Models

arXiv:2602.17829v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Inferring causal relations in timeseries data with delayed effects is a fundamental challenge, especially when the underlying system exhibits complex dynamics that cannot be captured by simple functional mappings. Traditional approaches often fail to produce generalized and interpretable explanations, as multiple distinct input trajectories may yield nearly indistinguishable outputs. In this work, we present ruleXplain, a framework that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to extract formal explanations for input-output relations in simulation-driven dynamical systems. Our method introduces a constrained symbolic rule language with temporal operators and delay semantics, enabling LLMs to generate verifiable causal rules through structured prompting. ruleXplain relies on the availability of a principled model (e.g., a simulator) that maps multivariate input time series to output time series. Within ruleXplain, the simulator is used to g

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Preetom Biswas, Giulia Pedrielli, K. Sel\c{c}uk Candan
· · 1 min read · 5 views

arXiv:2602.17829v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Inferring causal relations in timeseries data with delayed effects is a fundamental challenge, especially when the underlying system exhibits complex dynamics that cannot be captured by simple functional mappings. Traditional approaches often fail to produce generalized and interpretable explanations, as multiple distinct input trajectories may yield nearly indistinguishable outputs. In this work, we present ruleXplain, a framework that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to extract formal explanations for input-output relations in simulation-driven dynamical systems. Our method introduces a constrained symbolic rule language with temporal operators and delay semantics, enabling LLMs to generate verifiable causal rules through structured prompting. ruleXplain relies on the availability of a principled model (e.g., a simulator) that maps multivariate input time series to output time series. Within ruleXplain, the simulator is used to generate diverse counterfactual input trajectories that yield similar target output, serving as candidate explanations. Such counterfactual inputs are clustered and provided as context to the LLM, which is tasked with the generation of symbolic rules encoding the joint temporal trends responsible for the patterns observable in the output times series. A closed-loop refinement process ensures rule consistency and semantic validity. We validate the framework using the PySIRTEM epidemic simulator, mapping testing rate inputs to daily infection counts; and the EnergyPlus building energy simulator, observing temperature and solar irradiance inputs to electricity needs. For validation, we perform three classes of experiments: (1) the efficacy of the ruleset through input reconstruction; (2) ablation studies evaluating the causal encoding of the ruleset; and (3) generalization tests of the extracted rules across unseen output trends with varying phase dynamics.

Executive Summary

This article introduces ruleXplain, a framework that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to extract formal explanations for input-output relations in simulation-driven dynamical systems. The framework utilizes a constrained symbolic rule language with temporal operators and delay semantics to generate verifiable causal rules. ruleXplain relies on a principled model to generate diverse counterfactual input trajectories, which are then clustered and provided as context to the LLM to generate symbolic rules. The framework is validated using two simulators, PySIRTEM and EnergyPlus, demonstrating its efficacy in reconstructing input data, encoding causal relationships, and generalizing to unseen output trends. The work has significant implications for understanding complex systems and developing explainable AI models.

Key Points

  • ruleXplain framework uses LLMs to extract formal explanations for input-output relations in simulation-driven dynamical systems
  • The framework relies on a principled model to generate diverse counterfactual input trajectories
  • ruleXplain uses a constrained symbolic rule language with temporal operators and delay semantics to generate verifiable causal rules

Merits

Strength in Explainability

ruleXplain provides interpretable explanations for input-output relations, addressing a fundamental challenge in timeseries data analysis

Generalizability

The framework demonstrates generalization to unseen output trends with varying phase dynamics, enhancing its applicability

Flexibility

ruleXplain can be applied to various simulation-driven dynamical systems, such as epidemic and energy simulators

Demerits

Limited Domain

ruleXplain is developed for simulation-driven dynamical systems and may not be directly applicable to other domains

Computational Intensity

The framework relies on LLMs, which are computationally expensive and may require significant resources

Assumptions on Principled Model

ruleXplain assumes the availability of a principled model, which may not be feasible in all scenarios

Expert Commentary

The article introduces a novel framework, ruleXplain, which leverages LLMs to extract formal explanations for input-output relations in simulation-driven dynamical systems. The work builds upon recent advances in causal discovery and explainable AI, addressing a fundamental challenge in timeseries data analysis. While the framework demonstrates significant merits, including strength in explainability, generalizability, and flexibility, it also raises concerns about its limited domain, computational intensity, and assumptions on principled models. Future research should focus on extending the framework to other domains, reducing computational costs, and exploring alternative principled models.

Recommendations

  • Further development and refinement of the framework to address its limitations
  • Exploration of alternative principled models and their implications on the framework's performance
  • Application of ruleXplain to other domains and simulation-driven systems to evaluate its generalizability

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